Where more than two options are under consideration, the CEAC offers only a partial picture of the decision uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the estimates of cost-effectiveness was illustrated through a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve. Results The base case point estimate for the difference in effects and costs between rate and rhythm-control is 0.08 years (95% CI: -0.1 years to 0.24 years) and -US$5,077 (95% CI: -$1,100 to -$11,006). Proper medical cost and cost-effectiveness estimation is critical for health economics evaluation and decision-making. The interpretation of cost-effectiveness acceptability curves in terms of probability is natural when the Bayesian approach is adopted.22,23 The aim of this paper is to present and develop different Bayesian regression models for the effectiveness and cost, based on clinical treatment comparison. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEAC) Simultaneous comparison. By Bohdan Nosyk (118015), Behnam Sharif (338153), Huiying Sun (338156), Curtis Cooper (226581) and Aslam H. Anis (338158) The gold standard for estimating the treat-ment effect is a randomized controlled trial. A useful summary measure for quantifying uncertainty is the probability that each treatment strategy is the most cost effective. We are often most interested in the effect of a new treatment on cost and cost-effectiveness compared to the existing treatment. This is illustrated by the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve and indicates that at a threshold of 40 000 Euros the LC-programme has a 91% probability of cost-effectiveness among patients with HF, whereas the curve for IHD did not exceed a 2% probability for the defined threshold values for willingness to pay . The cost effectiveness acceptability curve illustrates the probability that the START intervention would be seen as cost effective compared with usual treatment across a range of hypothesised values placed on incremental outcome improvements (willingness to pay by health and social care system decision makers). The graph illustrates the probability that a treatment strategy is cost-effective across a range of possible willingness-to-pay thresholds, with the curves summing up to 100% at each threshold. Müller D, Pullenayegum E, Gandjour A. Eur J Health Econ, 16(2):219-223, 20 May 2014 Cited by: 1 article | PMID: 24840608 The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve is plotted in the Figure 5, which shows that osimertinib had a 21.28%–62.77% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $9776.8 to $29,330.4 per QALY (1–3 times the gross domestic product per capita in 2019). Cost effectiveness acceptability curves. Download : Download high-res image (405KB) By Afiatin (4033523), Levina Chandra Khoe (4033520), Erna Kristin (4033532), Lusiana Siti Masytoh (4033526), Eva Herlinawaty (4033535), Pitsaphun Werayingyong (4033529), Mardiati Nadjib (4033538), Sudigdo Sastroasmoro (3514346) and Yot … The parameter The uncertainty surrounding the estimates of cost-effectiveness was illustrated through a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve. For a particular subgroup, this is estimated from simulation output as the proportion of simulation draws that each strategy has the highest NMB. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve (CEAC) is a graph summarising the impact of uncertainty on the result of an economic evaluation, frequently expressed as an ICER (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio) in relation to possible values of the cost-effectiveness threshold. Impact of small study bias on cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and value of information analyses. 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